In Mexico, democratisation has reinvigorated a party system that a generation ago existed only on paper. How has this happened? This paper uses an analysis of state – party relations and opposition party politics to trace the process of democratisation in Mexico and explain its somewhat unexpected outcomes.
At the beginning of democratic transition in the early 1980s, Mexico was characterised by a strong presidentialism and a weak party system. It has now reversed with a much stronger party system. This resulted from a sequence of changes, many of which were unpredicted and unpredictable. There were other possible paths not taken. However, the outcome was also shaped, in part, by the provisions of the Mexican constitution, whose principles are far more closely observed today than they were during the periods of overpowering presidential government.
An interesting aspect of democratisation in Mexico has to do with what has survived transition and what has not. The largest party, the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), never converted itself into an authentic dominant party as the Salinas had intended. However, it was not swept away by the transition. The PRI held its nerve and reformulated a strategy after the 1988 elections and its defeat in 2000 and has survived as a major force in Mexican politics.
The sequence of changes that led to the current situation include following key events and circumstances:
- The initial threat to the system posed by the Cardenas candidacy in 1988 was suppressed.
- After 1988, electoral competition became increasingly important.
- The birth of party competition was contingent on other democratising influences.
- However, once born, it proved to have a considerable shaping influence of its own.
- The current system selects the president by simple majority; there is no runoff system.
- Congress is elected according to systems of proportional representation.
Mexico’s party system did not democratise Mexico. However, the party system has changed the political organisation of the country far more than many expected. For various reasons, the Mexican experience provides one Latin American case in which democratisation has led to a strengthening of parties rather than the emergence of charismatic anti-party politics:
- Proportional representation makes minority presidentialism likely, as has been the pattern since 2000.
- Since the Mexican constitution confers few powers on the presidency, the result is likely to be a continued redistribution of power from the president to the Congress.
- Strict term limit rules also have the effect of limiting the impact of any one individual upon the system as a whole.
- It is likely that the proportional electoral system for Congress combined with the genuine ideological identities of the major parties will keep an essentially three-party system in operation.
- The weakest of the three parties might get squeezed out by presidential contests, although it will not necessarily always the same party.
- It is also possible that the personal nature of presidential campaigning will always give the third party a chance.
