Interstate wars are not common today, but complex humanitarian emergencies (CHE) still cause death, suffering and prolonged underdevelopment. What are the root causes of CHEs?
This introductory chapter to a book from the United Nations University / Oxford University Press presents an overview of the causes and policy implications of CHEs. CHEs have four main dimensions: war, disease, hunger and displacement; ‘strong’ emergencies are where all four are significant; they are ‘limited’ where not all are significant. Limited CHEs involving war deaths usually develop into major CHEs, so the emphasis of the volume is on the root causes of conflict. Few generalisations can be made about these, which may be class-based or ethnic; state- or rebel-instigated; over land or natural resources; following economic growth or stagnation. Causes vary, but all centre around the interaction of power-seeking with group identity and inequalities; violence occurs between groups rather than individuals.
- Inequality is generally measured as income inequality – a vertical measurement of income distribution between all individuals in society; this fails to measure social or political inequality, or inequality between groups.
- ‘Horizontal inequality’ measures the inequalities between groups in various categories: incomes and employment, economic assets, political participation and social aspects.
- Persistent horizontal inequalities are the underlying factors which make a country prone to conflict, while violence is triggered by a particular change in one of these; analysis must identify both underlying inequalities and triggers.
- The real situation of groups thus measured must be accompanied by an analysis of their perceived situation, the private costs and benefits of conflicts (particularly to group leaders), constraints such as a strong peace-seeking state, and how conflicts are resourced.
- Leaders of groups (including states) largely seek to gain or retain power because of the gains of patronage, though violence for group gain also occurs for example, peasant revolutions; group identities are nurtured and sometimes even created by leaders to mobilise support.
- Patronage gains are greatest in semi-industrialised countries – the poorest have few resources to control, while developed economies have stronger rules and more wealth is available in the private sector.
Conflict prevention policies should seek to reduce horizontal inequalities and opportunities for private gain. They should form part of peace agreements and be considered in loan conditionality.
- Analysis of conflict-prone countries should determine the lines along which groups are differentiated and measure inequalities between them.
- Reducing inequalities in political participation is hardest but the most important, because other inequalities flow from that such as, access to government resources, education, employment, land reform, and other redistribution.
- Benefits from investment and aid, and access to state services, especially education, must all be distributed equitably amongst groups.
- International financial institutions which introduce inequalities through adjustment programmes are not responsible for causing CHEs, but they must start to incorporate these considerations into their policy prescriptions to avoid doing so; the costs of conflict are greater than any short-term inefficiencies.
- Multi-party democracy is in itself insufficient to avoid conflict: parties may be organised along group lines, and a legitimate majority government may discriminate against other groups.
- Conflict-torn societies are riven along group lines, so exhortations to reduce group inequalities are often unwelcome; policies should nevertheless aim for this goal, and avoid providing resources which could fuel conflict.
