Is democratisation to best way to promote peace? This research from the United States Institute of Peace argues that the world would probably be safer if there were more mature democracies but, in the transition to democracy, countries become more aggressive and war prone. The international community should be realistic about the dangers of encouraging democratisation where the conditions are unripe. The risk of violence increases if democratic institutions are not in place when mass electoral politics are introduced.
When authoritarian regimes break down and mass politics begin, democratic procedures are likely to be manipulated by both rising and declining elites to rally support from the newly empowered masses. Nationalist or other populist ideologies, occurring at early stages of democratic transition, can lead to international and internal violence. Incomplete democratisation occurring in the face of weak government institutions undermines the state’s ability to manage elite interests and newly politicised mass groups. Political institutions are unable to resolve conflicts of interest growing from demands for political participation, thereby creating the conditions for violent conflict. Unless the state inherits strong political institutions at the outset, turbulence is hard to avoid during the first step on the road to democracy.
Several key factors influence the tendency towards violence in transitional democracies.
- Democratising states are often initiators of war, not because war is popular with the public but because domestic pressures create incentives for threatened elites to inflame nationalist sentiment.
- A weakening of the state’s authority in the early stages of democratisation deepens the political paralysis and leads to recklessness among the ruling elite.
- Nationalism unites elites and masses, distracting attention from class divisions.
- The masses, once mobilised by passionate nationalist appeals, are difficult to control.
- Premature electoral competition is often an occasion for violence and plays into the hands of nationalist demagogues.
- Unleashing Islamic mass opinion through democratisation might raise the likelihood of war, since the institutional preparations for democracy are weak.
Although countries are more likely to go to war in the transition to democracy, this does not mean that democratisation should be halted for the sake of peace. However, proponents of democratisation should advance cautiously.
- The timing of efforts to promote democracy should be carefully weighed. It should focus on countries where conditions are ripe.
- The sequence of transition should begin with institution building and end with open electoral competition. This sequence is likely to minimise the undesirable side effects of democratisation.
- It is important to study states such as Britain and South Africa where democratisation occurred without triggering nationalist mobilisation.
- Where institutions are lacking they can sometimes be easily built, for example in richer countries with high literacy and high citizen skills or where there is a legacy of legal, administrative or journalistic institutions.
