This paper explores the potential impact of future demographic and climate change on migration patterns in developing countries. It argues that policymakers should not seek to prevent migration resulting from climate change: some migration impacts from existing emissions are likely to be unavoidable, and migration itself can have both positive and negative effects. Rather, policies are needed to support: a) pro-poor adaptation; and b) people who will migrate at least partly as a result of climate change.
Migration is often seen as a major public policy challenge for industrialised nations, as this is where ‘environmental refugees’ are expected to seek asylum. However, different causes of migration cannot be isolated from each other. Migration is a multi-causal phenomenon in which a range of factors are inter-related. It is therefore unclear how far climate change will emerge as a significant or predominant factor in influencing human migration, distinct from other economic, social or political factors, and/or overriding their effect. A useful approach for future research might be to develop locally-specific case studies which examine how the drivers of existing migration streams might be impacted by or sensitive to climate change, rather than seeking to produce crude global estimates based on delineation of affected areas.
Climate change may, however, influence the factors that drive migration, affecting both migration patterns, and the volume of people likely to move. For example:
- In Bangladesh, lack of access to land is a key driver of migration. Climate change is likely to detrimentally impact on almost all rural production systems, which combined with a growing population, may dramatically reduce both the productivity of and access to natural resources.
- In Ghana, rapid economic growth in major cities is underpinned by the need for energy. However, the hydroelectric power stations that generate 80 per cent of national power could be affected by decreasing rainfalls.
- Migration in Ethiopia has been related to conflict or a lack of resources. With the growing season in Ethiopia projected to reduce by 5 to 20 per cent by 2050, there could be a further reduction in agricultural productivity, leading to increased political and economic tensions.
- In Sudan, seasonal migration patterns will be affected by climate change. A trend of decreasing annual rainfall and rainfall variability is already contributing to drought conditions in many parts of the country.
Policymakers can respond to climate change through climate-sensitive development policies – pro-poor adaptation that builds local resilience and adaptive capacity, reducing the need for the poor to migrate. These measures should include: a) new policies to build adaptive capacity among some of the most affected populations (in areas such as the Sahel); and b) the integration of climate change concerns into existing policies. In addition, policies aimed at migrants and migrations linked to climate change might include:
- Incorporating migration into National Adaptation Programmes of Action and incorporating both migration and climate change into national development plans.
- Ensuring the social protection of the more vulnerable or poorer migrants. This could include improving the portability of social benefits across international borders. Poorer migrants within developing countries will need protection from exploitation and abuse.
- Targeting support to the slums of large cities, particularly to improve service delivery.
