How is it possible to ensure that programmes are politically feasible? This paper documents findings from the World Bank East Asia and Pacific Region’s pilot of the Agent-Based Stakeholder Model. The study finds that this model helped construct policy debate on civil service reform in Timor-Leste; helped identify key coalition partners in Mongolia; and underscored the need to tackle smaller reforms on which broad consensus could be achieved in the Phillipines. Mainstreaming the model as a regularly applied analytic instrument could significantly improve operations in supporting politically realistic reforms in client countries.
Policy change inevitably creates winners and losers, so those with vested interests strike bargains to determine how far and how quickly reform should advance. Understanding these micro political dynamics of reform can mean the difference between a successful intervention that gains political traction and a well-intentioned gambit that falls short of achieving its developmental objectives. Donors have been searching for ways to take these political factors more fully into account as they design programmes to support country reforms.
This initiative sought to introduce a rigorous and operationally usable political analysis tool that could be systematically integrated into the World Bank’s country programming cycle. The approach entails a quantitative simulation of the complex bargaining dynamics surrounding reform. It anticipates stakeholder coalition formation and gauges the political feasibility of alternative proposed interventions.
- In Timor-Leste, the analysis was helpful in constructing the country and donor policy debate on civil service reform. However, the prospects for short-term agreement were small.
- In Mongolia, the analysis helped identify key coalition partners and underscored the need for continuing, embedded analysis as electoral and economic conditions evolved.
- In the Philippines, findings underscored the need to tackle smaller reform modules on which broad consensus could be achieved, even if this meant scaling back on important reform aspirations.
The ABSM offers a powerful addition to the political economy toolkit, if used thoughtfully. In particular:
- The tool was helpful in crafting micro-political policy agreement on specific issues, even when the wider reform environment was inhospitable to broad advances.
- The ABSM had predictive value but also provided a heuristic contribution – it helped teams to think through the sequence and strategies for reform.
- The ABSM would be well-suited to convening country or sector strategy brainstorming and would be most helpful if carried out on a regular, institutionalised basis.
- The ABSM instrument was distinguished by the systematic, just-in-time, and dynamic quality of its analytic power.
- The tool does not offer a stand-alone, silver-bullet solution and was most effective when complemented by other, broader types of political economy analysis.
- The relative intensity of the field protocol and the need for up-front investment in training must be noted. These obstacles could be overcome if the tool were adopted in a high-volume business model.
