This paper identifies the main political and political economy drivers of development in Uganda today. It starts from the premise that the ‘political settlement’ forged among the most powerful groups in society shapes the capacity and commitment of governments to deliver development. Building on recent investigations into the politics of development in Uganda, this paper examines the historical origins and current state of the political settlement and the implications for governance and inclusive development in Uganda, with a particular focus on structural transformation, social provisioning and the politics of recognition. It finishes by identifying some key areas for further research.
The study characterises Uganda as a ‘dominant leader’ form of political settlement, but also draws attention to the dynamics at work both historically and more recently. It argues that recent dynamics within Uganda’s political settlement are largely inimical to the prospects of developing the kinds of relations and institutions associated with delivering either structural transformation or improved levels of service delivery. This has serious implications for Uganda’s development prospects moving forwards, and the final section advances some ideas for further research into what is feasible for governance and development within this context.
Key Findings:
- Uganda has moved from a situation where politics seemed to be broadly aligned with an agenda of inclusive development, to one where most observers are convinced that its developmental orientation is in decline.
- The political settlement in Uganda contains few incentives for political elites to ensure that effective, impersonal and accountable institutions emerge and are allowed to function. This has the effect of reducing the capacity and commitment of the state to deliver development and structural transformation.
- There is something of a vicious circle at work, whereby the relatively slow rate of structural transformation stymies the creation of more autonomous economic interest groups and urbanisation, which is linked to catalysing processes associated with improved levels of democracy and governance.
- The return of multi-party politics has further politicized public policy making and has both deepened and broadened the level and costs of patronage. This has reduced the availability of resources for productive investments. However, the subsequent deepening of electoral incentives has also meant that to some extent the terms of inclusion within the ruling coalition are being re-negotiated. Most notably, this is happening in regards to the north and in ways that appear to be deepening elite commitment towards inclusive development.
- Even within such clientelistic settlements there remains at least some room for manoeuvre in certain policy spaces, particularly those involving existing pockets of bureaucratic excellence. Some bureaucrats in key positions remain committed to ensuring that evidence-based development policies are made and delivered, and there is some room here for external brokers to engage.
