This paper argues that migration can be an adaptive strategy. There is growing evidence to suggest that mobility, together with income diversification, is important in reducing vulnerability to both environmental and non-environmental risks. Short-term urban migration is already often used a means of broadening income in times of agricultural shortage. Supporting migration to small, intermediate urban centres is likely to become increasingly important in adapting to climate change. Local and national institutions urgently need to foster a positive perspective of migration. Rather than seeking to influence the volume, direction and types of population movement, migration policies might more usefully aim to accommodate changes in migration patterns.
There is a risk that alarmist predictions of climate change-induced migration will result in inappropriate policies that will do little to protect the rights of those most vulnerable to climate change. Research on contexts that offer similarities with the predicted impacts of climate change suggests that environmental degradation does not inevitably result in migration. Where it does, it is likely that movement is predominantly short-term, (as in cases of extreme weather events and natural disasters), and short-distance, (as in cases of drought and land degradation). For example, in the aftermath of the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, most people returned as soon as possible to reconstruct their homes and livelihoods.
Short-distance, circular migration can therefore become an adaptive response to slow-onset climate change. There is much evidence showing that income diversification and mobility are already substantial elements of the livelihoods of both rural and urban populations:
- Remittances and non-farm earnings have played a major role in financing innovation and farming intensification in Africa and Asia through the provision of capital and the encouragement of risk-taking. In India, remittances account for a third of the annual incomes of poor and landless rural households. In Africa, earnings from non-farm activities account for an estimated 30-50 per cent of rural household incomes.
- In Thailand, one-third of all internal migration in the early 1990s was estimated to consist of temporary movement to Bangkok’s metropolitan region during the dry season.
- In African urban centres, research shows that both wealthy and poorer groups tend to invest in property in rural areas, often in their home villages, as a safety net against economic and political crises.
Therefore, policies that support and accommodate mobility and migration are important for both adaptation and the achievement of broader development goals.
- Small towns can provide for the livelihoods of the poorest groups, often landless and without the means to migrate to larger cities, by providing access to non-farm activities that require limited skills and capital.
- Smaller urban centres can help to achieve a more decentralised pattern of urbanisation. This will help reduce population concentration in large coastal cities that are vulnerable to sea-level rise.
- The role of small towns in adapting to climate change needs to be part of a broader approach to development. Local enterprises need access to markets, outside capital resources and technical knowledge.
- Local governments in small towns need to improve their support to migrants and protect their rights. Poor migrants in smaller urban centres can often be more disadvantaged than migrants in large cities.
