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Home»GSDRC Publications»Early Warning Systems and Air Quality Forecasting

Early Warning Systems and Air Quality Forecasting

Helpdesk Report
  • William Avis
March 2026

Question

What does existing evidence indicate about the effectiveness of early warning systems in predicting and communicating air quality related hazard events, and what factors influence their accuracy and utility for decision makers and at risk populations?

Summary

This K4DD Rapid Evidence Review collates available evidence on early warning systems and air quality forecasting.

It identifies a diverse and expanding evidence base including academic articles and grey literature (particularly produced by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and UN bodies). The evidence base clearly highlights that predictive capabilities have improved over the last two decades, driven by improved data and new techniques for analysing sources of information i.e., artificial intelligence and machine learning. Despite these advances, the ability to forecast air quality levels remains challenging, particularly beyond two days. There is also a distinct variance in capabilities between data rich and data poor regions.

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Suggested citation

Avis, W. (2026). Early Warning Systems and Air Quality Forecasting. K4DD Rapid Evidence Review 382. Brighton, UK: Institute of Development Studies. DOI: 10.19088/K4DD.2026.038

University of Birmingham

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Outputs supported by DFID are © DFID Crown Copyright 2026; outputs supported by the Australian Government are © Australian Government 2026; and outputs supported by the European Commission are © European Union 2026

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