What are the challenges and risks involved in the reintegration of insurgents in Afghanistan? This paper argues that reintegration is more complex and difficult to accomplish than is commonly appreciated. Obstacles include lack of trust, insurgent cohesion and revenge attacks. A well-executed reintegration scheme could have social and economic benefits and reduce insurgency. But if mishandled, it could do the reverse. Without intelligent design, effective delivery and political resolve, reintegration has the potential to exacerbate security problems, undermine high-level talks and even increase insurgent recruitment.
The growing strength of the Taliban has prompted foreign powers to reshape their strategy in Afghanistan. A major element of the new approach is the reintegration of insurgents, described by the US military as ‘golden surrender’.
A fundamental obstacle to reintegration is the divergence between what people are fighting for and what reintegration has to offer. Other obstacles relate to the process of reintegration itself.
- It is widely held that insurgents are fighting for economic reasons and incentives will persuade them to lay down their arms. But there are more immediate and fundamental reasons that drive people to join the insurgency, including disempowerment, abuse, feuds and corruption.
- Mistrust between insurgents and the Afghan government poses a serious obstacle to reintegration: insurgents are unlikely to participate if they do not have confidence in the process.
- Like many insurgent groups, the Taliban have decentralised operations but high levels of cohesion. As a social and cultural phenomenon, the insurgency provides fighters with a sense of purpose and solidarity.
- Reintegration programmes in the midst of conflict tend to meet with fierce opposition from insurgents. The Taliban intend to counter reintegration attempts by exacting violent retribution against those who reintegrate.
- Given the covert, diffuse and changing nature of the insurgency, it may be difficult to verify whether potential participants are genuine insurgents. It is also likely that some insurgents will reintegrate and later revert back to the insurgency.
- There are huge logistical challenges in implementing a large-scale reintegration programme. Success or failure will depend heavily on local conditions.
Perhaps the greatest risk of reintegration is that the programme distracts policymakers from addressing the root causes of conflict, especially exclusionary politics and abuse of power. This would be treating the symptoms while ignoring the cause. Any reintegration policy also needs to take account of these obstacles and consider wider implications:
- There is a risk of attacks on reintegration projects. If NGOs are used for reintegration purposes and staff are targeted, they may withdraw. This would be harmful for development.
- Given the role of local power-holders in reintegration, there is a risk of exacerbating local rivalries and conflicts. Disputes often arise over resources. Reintegration should be accompanied by local efforts to build trust, understanding and constructive relations.
- Some Taliban commanders and sympathisers see reintegration initiatives as evidence that the government and international community are not serious about high-level talks.
- Paradoxically, reports of billions of dollars available for reintegration could increase insurgent recruitment.
- With systematic corruption at all levels, there is a risk that funds will be misappropriated.
