This report identifies literature that assesses seismic risk in Kenya. In this report seismic risk, as a concept, is understood to be the product of seismic hazard (the probability of harmful seismic phenomena) and seismic vulnerability (the degree of loss from seismic phenomena).
In terms of overall seismic risk, the presence of part of the East African Rift (which runs through the west of Kenya) and the Davie fracture (just south of the Mombasa), means that Kenya is vulnerable to seismic activity and related natural disasters: earthquakes, volcanic eruption and tsunamis.
Kenya faces a relatively low earthquake hazard in comparison to neighbouring countries, with hazard levels highest in the north-west and south-west regions. The cities with the greatest degree of hazard are Nakuru, Eldoret, Kisumu and Kakamega which have a medium degree of seismic hazard (see WHO 2010 for the hazard scale). Nairobi faces a low degree of hazard and Mombasa very low.
Mombasa and the rest of the Kenyan coast have a modest degree of tsunami hazard. Kenya has only experienced one recorded tsunami which arose from the Indian Ocean Earthquake of 2004, the impact of which was relatively minor. According to assessments, the coast is vulnerable to 2 metre high waves and water reaching 500 metres inland.
It has not been possible to estimate volcanic hazard in this helpdesk report.
In terms of overall vulnerability, an earthquake in Kenya is likely to result in more economic loss than in neighbouring Somalia, but at similar levels to other neighbouring countries. In this helpdesk report it has not been possible to obtain sub-national data or finite estimates of loss resulting from seismic activity.
Most key vulnerability analyses do not cite seismic activity and subsequent natural hazards as a significant concern in Kenya. These vulnerability analyses do not estimate the vulnerability of different populations to seismic-related hazards but do identify populations vulnerable to hazardous factors and humanitarian risk in general. It may be that these vulnerable groups – primarily refugees, internally displaced persons (IDPs), and those working in agriculture – are more vulnerable to seismic hazards. Those vulnerable to conflict; flooding; and water, sanitation and hygiene-related diseases may also be more vulnerable to seismic risks.
