This report looks at each of the six Western Balkans countries listed above, identifies the key economic challenges they face and assesses whether any of these are, or have the potential to become, drivers of conflict. The literature reviewed largely comprised reports from international development/finance organisations, notably the World Bank, IMF and European Commission, as ...» more
Conflict analysis
Sinai conflict analysis
The Sinai conflict has been underway since 2011 and has become progressively more intense and violent, fuelled by localised grievances as well as wider regional developments. The key actors involved are militant jihadist groups, local Bedouin tribes and the Egyptian government/military; others such as Israel, Gaza and the Multinational Forces and Observers have varying ...» more
Conflict analysis of Egypt
In 2011 Egypt experienced mass protests culminating in the fall of long serving president, Hosni Mubarak. The time in power of the country’s first democratically elected President, the Muslim Brotherhood’s Mohamed Morsi, was short-lived. He was deposed by Egypt’s military on 3 July 2013, following anti-government demonstrations. Abdul Fatah el-Sisi, former head of the armed ...» more
Cross-border conflict drivers and breaks – Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran and Iraq
This report provides an overview of the evidence on cross-border conflict drivers and breaks along the Pakistan–Afghanistan–Iran–Iraq route. Direct evidence on the nature of conflict-related flows along this route in its entirety is limited. Therefore, this report includes evidence on crossborder conflict dynamics between neighbouring countries along the route. This report was ...» more
Gender and conflict in Ukraine
The conflicts in eastern and southern Ukraine constitute a significant humanitarian crisis for the country and the region, with at least 1.7 million internally displaced persons, two-thirds of whom are women (UNOCHA 2016, p. 7; UNHCR 2015, p. 5) and approximately 1.5 million people seeking asylum or other forms of legal stay in neighbouring countries (UNHCR 2016, p. 7). Women ...» more
Cross-border drivers of conflict across Sudan, Egypt, and Jordan
Conflict drivers/breaks often affect multiple countries simultaneously. Moreover, conflict drivers such as violent extremism; migration; and goods trafficking are often interlinked (Browne, 2013, p. 1). Migration and trafficking often follow the same geographical routes through multiple countries, and can also involve weapons smuggling for extremist groups. Moreover, ...» more
Factors behind the fall of Mosul to ISIL (Daesh) in 2014
The city of Mosul in Iraq’s Nineveh Province fell to the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), known in Iraq as Daesh, on June 9 2014, following three days of fighting between jihadists and the Iraqi Security Forces. General factors behind the fall of Mosul in 2014: Sectarian policies: Marginalisation of the Sunni minority following the 2003 US-led invasion of ...» more
The role of online/social media in countering violent extremism in East Africa
There is growing recognition amongst academics and policy makers that de-radicalisation and countering violent extremism programmes can be a more effective way of tackling extremism than purely militaristic approaches. Online and social media are useful in the dissemination of counter narratives in multiple languages, and to reach a broad, geographically diverse audience. The ...» more
Online/social media as a pathway towards violent extremism in East Africa
Findings from a large and growing body of literature consistently highlight the increasingly sophisticated manner in which violent extremist organisations use the Internet and social media. However, there is relatively little empirical research to determine why and how individuals join violent extremist groups such as Al-Shabaab. Evidence is mixed and individual case studies ...» more
Webinar: religion, conflict and violent extremism
On May 11 2016, Dr. Sara Silvestri (City University London), Andrew Glazzard and Martine Zeuthen (RUSI) discussed issues raised in their reading packs on religion and conflict and violent extremism. An audio-only version is available below.
The Central African Republic crisis
Since March 2013, the Central African Republic (CAR) has been experiencing violent sectarian conflict. The conflict initially began between two well-defined rival groups that became increasingly fragmented, with competing agendas and interests. Further, the current transitional government lacks the capacity and political will to enforce any real political reforms. A number ...» more
Political economy of conflicts in Kyrgyzstan since the 2000s
A fundamental finding, widely shared among authors, is that it is not only the national level that matters, but also regional and local ones, in violent and non-violent conflicts. In recent and older history, local conflicts sometime develop into national ones. Other key findings of the literature review include: The root causes of both conflicts are largely similar and ...» more
Violent extremism
‘Violent extremism’ is rarely defined: neither the United Nations nor the European Union has an official definition. USAID defines it as “advocating, engaging in, preparing, or otherwise supporting ideologically motivated or justified violence to further social, economic or political objectives”. However, this apparently simple and obvious statement conceals a great deal of controversy and uncertainty….» more
Conflict analysis of Muslim Mindanao
The Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) in the Philippines was founded in 1989. It consists of five provinces – Maguindanao, Lanao del Sur, Basilan, Sulu and Tawi-Tawi. Conflict between Moro groups seeking an independent state in Mindanao, and the Government of the Philippines (GPH) has been ongoing for four decades. After numerous attempts to resolve the conflicts, a ...» more
Extremist radicalisation towards non-state political violence in Jordan
Within available evidence, there are a number of knowledge gaps on issues, social structures (such as gender), and geographic areas. To reflect this state of knowledge and to be precise about the sources of specific findings, this report presents references in the form of an annotated bibliography. Key findings and themes include: There has been little non-state ...» more
Conflict dynamics and potential for peacebuilding in Iraq
This report is an update of the information available in the October 2014 GSDRC Contemporary conflict analysis of Iraq. Since the beginning of 2014, the extreme jihadist group ISIL, who are also active in Syria, has gained control of territory in the mainly Sunni and contested areas of Iraq, although government forces, the Kurdish Peshmerga, and the Shia dominated Hashd ...» more
Fragility, violence and criminality in the Gulf of Guinea
The Gulf of Guinea is rich in oil and gas, and a major international trade route. While oil wealth in the context of weak governance and under-development is creating tensions leading to criminality and violence, high geostrategic stakes provide the incentives for national, regional and international actors to seek solutions. This rapid literature review analyses the causes, ...» more
Conflict analysis of Kenya
Kenya is a large multi-ethnic country, with over 40 different ethnic groups and many overlapping conflicts. It has high levels of sexual and gender-based violence and of intercommunal violence; low levels of persistent violence; cycles of election-related violence; and increasing numbers of terrorist attacks. The incidence, gravity and intensity of violence have all increased ...» more
Islamist radicalisation and terrorism in Tanzania
The literature generally emphasises that while relations between Christian and Muslim groups are increasingly tense, there is evidence that Tanzania is not ‘a battleground for conflicting civilisations’ (Heilman & Kaiser 2002, p. 692). Many argue that while a number of identity groups (political, religious, ethnic) have served as the basis for political organisation and ...» more
Role of development assistance in countering extremism and terrorism
The relationship between development assistance and security has attracted particular attention since the post-2001 ‘global war on terror’. Heightened international concern about religious extremism has placed the development-security nexus into a renewed focus, with increasing recognition of the links between development, governance, and terrorist threat. Drawing from the ...» more
